Framing: Each year, the population is obtained from the previous year's by doubling and adding 3. The "+3" is a nuisance — our first job is to absorb it so we're left with a clean doubling pattern.
Step 1 — Write the recurrence formally.
Let pn be the population at the beginning of year n. We are given:
pn+1=3+2pn,p2019=1000.
Step 2 — Remove the constant by shifting the variable.
The "+3" stops this from being a simple geometric sequence. Define a shifted variable:
qn=pn+3.
Now substitute into the recurrence:
qn+1=pn+1+3=(3+2pn)+3=2pn+6=2(pn+3)=2qn.
So qn is a geometric sequence with common ratio 2 — it simply doubles every year.
💡 Teacher tip: For any recurrence of the form pn+1=c+rpn, the substitution qn=pn+r−1c eliminates the constant and gives a pure geometric sequence qn+1=r⋅qn. Here c=3 and r=2, so the shift is 2−13=3. This shift is actually the fixed point of the recurrence — the value where p=3+2p would hold.
Step 3 — Compute the starting value of q.
q2019=p2019+3=1000+3=1003.
Step 4 — Count the number of steps.
From the beginning of 2019 to the beginning of 2034, the recurrence is applied:
2034−2019=15 times.
Step 5 — Apply the geometric-sequence formula.
Since qn doubles each step:
q2034=q2019×215=1003×215.
Step 6 — Convert back to population p.
Since qn=pn+3, we have pn=qn−3:
p2034=q2034−3=1003×215−3.
Verification — check the first few terms directly:
| Year n | pn (direct computation) | qn=pn+3 | 1003×2n−2019 | Match? |
|---|
| 2019 | 1000 | 1003 | 1003×20=1003 | ✅ |
| 2020 | 3+2(1000)=2003 | 2006 | 1003×21=2006 | ✅ |
| 2021 | 3+2(2003)=4009 | 4012 | 1003×22=4012 | ✅ |
| 2022 | 3+2(4009)=8021 | 8024 | 1003×23=8024 | ✅ |
The pattern is confirmed. After 15 doublings, p2034+3=1003×215, so p2034=1003×215−3.
Answer: (1003)×215−3 (Choice D)
Alternative approach — Spot the pattern by computing terms.
If the substitution trick doesn't occur to you immediately, compute a few terms and look for structure:
| Year | pn | pn+3 |
|---|
| 2019 | 1000 | 1003 |
| 2020 | 2003 | 2006 |
| 2021 | 4009 | 4012 |
| 2022 | 8021 | 8024 |
Notice that pn+3 doubles each year: 1003,2006,4012,8024,… — that is, 1003×20,1003×21,1003×22,1003×23,…
After 15 doublings (from 2019 to 2034):
p2034+3=1003×215⟹p2034=1003×215−3.
Same result, discovered by pattern recognition. The substitution method is more reliable under exam pressure since it doesn't depend on spotting the pattern.
Why the wrong options fail:
- Option A (1003)15+6: confuses multiplying by 215 with raising to the 15th power.
- Option B (997)15−3: uses 1000−3=997 (wrong shift direction) and again exponentiates instead of doubling.
- Option C (997)×214+3: wrong shift (997 instead of 1003), wrong number of steps (14 instead of 15), and wrong sign on the trailing constant.
Closing insight: The recurring theme in CAT recurrence problems is linearisation — any affine recurrence pn+1=c+rpn can be turned into a pure geometric one by measuring from its fixed point r−1c. Once you internalise this, the "+3" in the problem becomes a signal, not an obstacle.